https://www.dnaindia.com/analysis/column-hobson-s-choice-for-pakistan-2781549
HOBSON’S CHOICE FOR PAKISTAN
Modi-fying, pun intended, Article 370 has been an epic and a bold decision, long overdue. While it means different things to different people, there’s no denying that things will never be same again. Status quo has been broken. A great beginning has been made, that should usher in development and growth, and hopefully peace. We have a strong govt at the centre which has not shied away from taking bold decisions when required. It called Pakistan’s nuclear bluff while launching surgical strikes in J&K in 2016 and aerial strikes in Balakot this year. It had exhibited similar boldness in executing demonetisation and levying GST.
While much has been said about the legality and constitutionality, even emotional aspects, it is also important to see these from the prism of security. Despite barriers created by Article 370, some provisions did exist for investment from corporates from outside the state, including incentives to the industry, but when the growth story of India was taking a leap in the nineties, the security situation in J&K was really bad enough to scare away the most stout hearted. Meeting the growth aspirations of the youth, as anywhere else, needs private sector participation, it cannot be done by govt jobs or public sector alone. Any amount of incentives and openness for the industry cannot help bring in investment if there is no peace in the Valley. Therefore, it does boil down to providing a safe and secure environment to foster development. That is paramount.
Purely from a security perspective, whittling down of Article 370 in J&K is a welcome step. Security concerns can be addressed better than before, without local pressures.
What are the security implications now? The UN response has been cautious, while making the expected diplomatic observations. The US and most other countries have, by and large, taken a stand that it is an internal matter and differences, if any, must be resolved through dialogue peacefully. What is more important here is the response and attitude of our immediate neighbours, having contiguity with J&K, and Ladakh.
China has somewhat diplomatically, asked India and Pakistan to exercise restraint, saying they should avoid actions that “unilaterally” change the status quo and exacerbate tensions between them as it voiced “serious concern” over the situation in Kashmir. China, however, expressed its opposition to India’s move to create a separate Union Territory of Ladakh. There has been an exchange of statements and counter statements but their attitude stops short of being belligerent. De-hyphenating Ladakh from J&K has its parallel in change of status of Gilgit-Baltistan vis-à-vis POK. Sino-Indian dialogues that encompass Tibet, Taiwan, Xinjiang will have an added issue of Ladakh.
This move seems to have taken Pakistan completely by surprise. And somewhat at loss for responses. But Pakistan has no choice, it has to express solidarity with Kashmir; it’s a glue that binds their country and enshrines the importance of Pakistan army in their country. However, despite an encouraging dole from the US last month, Pakistan is in a tight corner at this point of time to consider any major action, an all-out war. FATF re-categorisation comes up for renewal in October and its economy is precariously poised for such misadventuristic investment, the world reaction has been muted, So, what can they do? Diplomatic steps taken, air flights and train suspended, trade sanctions apart, what are the security implications short of war?
Firstly, Pakistan can increase the heat on the LoC in both genres – cross border firing and attempt pushing in more infiltrating terrorists into the valley. Secondly, they can engineer an increase in terrorist activities in hinterland. Thirdly, they can step up agitational dynamics of stone pelting by the locals to protest against this reorganisation of the state. Our army grid on the Line of Control and security forces deployment in the hinterland is fully geared to meet these contingencies, more so with recent reinforcements. A unified command structure without any interference from local pressures will strengthen our hand greatly. Political resentment is likely to lead to spilling of anger on the streets in form of protests and agitations. Some of these are likely to turn violent and lead to stone pelting. The security forces have to handle this firmly, yet with sensitivity that it deserves. It cannot be allowed to spin out of control.
However strong our posture on the line of control and security grid in the hinterland be, there could always be that small chance of a lone wolf attack, or one fanatic suicide terrorist who can create a ‘Pulwama’ and we could get pushed into operational brinkmanship again. It is, therefore, necessary to retain a stated bold offensive punitive response options to deter any misadventure, as Pakistan has started appealing to terrorists groups to express solidarity with their Kashmiri brethren. Fearing retaliation, they should be appealing to the contrary, lest Pakistan slips into ‘Black List’ in October. A Hobson’s choice for Pakistan?
Information warfare and psychological warfare is another dimension of security that merits mention here. We had our shortcomings in building a good narrative so far, a space which was quickly filled up by the other side, with hate narrative. This is our chance to reverse it. Since there has been no explicit consultative process before scrapping Article 370, the state must build a good, robust, factual narrative and take it to the people in every which way. This strategic communication is needed to dispel uncertainty and the fear of future from the minds of the people and create hope in the minds. And use the narrative to counter alienation and radicalisation as well. We must get back into the mind space of the youth. Youth are the key to integration.
Now that J&K is a union territory, to be administered in significant part by the Centre, Union govt must ensure that this change leads to a better state in all aspects, taking the people together. This will not be easy, but is not insurmountable. And anyway, it has to be done. To show the people of J&K, and to rest of India, and to rest of the world that everyone will lead a better life in this new order.
Generally speaking... 